Short time trend predicating method for sea wave significant wave height based on reanalysis data

一种基于再分析数据的海浪有效波高的短期趋势预测方法

Abstract

本发明涉及一种基于再分析数据的海浪有效波高的短期趋势预测方法,其特征在于具体步骤包括:一、收集基于再分析数据的海浪有效波高及海平面气压数据;二、建立海平面气压矩阵及有效波高矩阵;三、计算SLP的距平值及其标准偏差;四、对SLP距平值做主成分分析;五、对海平面气压和海浪有效波高数据进行Box-Cox变换;六、计算得到海浪有效波高的预测因子;七、将预测因子带入预测模型,用F统计量选择最优预测因子进行预测;八、计算海浪有效波高短期趋势;九、还原海浪有效波高值,保存为格点模式文件;十、绘制出海浪有效波高短期趋势图。本发明可预报多时次的海浪有效波高的短期趋势,且预报有效波高短期趋势的准确率高。
The invention relates to a short time trend predicating method for a sea wave significant wave height based on reanalysis data. The method is characterized by comprising the following specific steps that firstly, data of the sea wave significant wave height based on the reanalysis data and data of sea level pressure are collected; secondly, a sea level pressure matrix and a significant wave height matrix are built; thirdly, the anomaly of the SLP and the standard deviation of the anomaly are calculated; fourthly, main composition analysis is conducted on the anomaly of the SLP; fifthly, Box-Cox conversion is conducted on the data of the sea level pressure and the data of the sea wave significant wave height; sixthly, predicating factors of the sea wave significant wave height are obtained through calculation; seventhly, the predicating factors are substituted into a predicating model, and the optimal predicating factor is selected for predicating with F-statistics; eighthly, the short time trend of the sea wave significant wave height is calculated; ninthly, the value of the sea wave significant wave height is restored and stored into a lattice point mode file; tenthly, a short time trend chart of the sea wave significant wave height is drawn. According to the short time trend predicating method, the multi-time short time trend of the sea wave significant wave height can be forecasted, and the accuracy of forecasting the short time trend of the significant wave height is high.

Claims

Description

Topics

Download Full PDF Version (Non-Commercial Use)

Patent Citations (3)

    Publication numberPublication dateAssigneeTitle
    CN-102063564-AMay 18, 2011中国海洋大学一种基于最大熵原则的台风影响海域设计波高推算新方法
    CN-102799770-ANovember 28, 2012哈尔滨工程大学一种基于pso自适应分段线性拟合的海浪有效波高反演模型建模方法
    WO-2007007728-A1January 18, 2007Port And Airport Research Institute, Coastal Development Institute Of Technology, Japan Weather Association, Hitachi Zosen Corporation津波情報提供方法および津波情報提供システム

NO-Patent Citations (3)

    Title
    G.FERRETTI,ET AL: "On microseisms recorded near the Ligurian coast(Italy) and their relationship with sea wave height", 《GERPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL》
    X.L.WANG ET AL.: "Historical and possible future changes of wave heights in northern hemisphere oceans", 《ATMOSPHERE OCEAN INTERACTIONS》
    XIAOLAN L ET AL.: "North Atlantic wave height trends as reconstructed from the 20th century reanalysis", 《GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS》

Cited By (1)

    Publication numberPublication dateAssigneeTitle
    CN-106202920-ADecember 07, 2016中国石油大学(华东), 国家海洋局北海预报中心Numerical forecasting interpretation and application method of single-station sea surface air pressure